Sunday, November 11, 2007

Assessing the DayJet monthly burn rate

Borrowed from the Eclipse Critic comments..........

If you assume that each flight was a revenue flight (no positioning or dead head flights and no diverted flights) and each flight had 3 passengers and each passenger paid $4 per mile, you would get the absolute maximum revenue for the month.

If you assume a reasonable percentage of the flights were positioning, training, or dead head flights and each rev flight had one passenger and each passenger paid $2 per mile, then you get the lower bound on revenue for the month.

Then best case would be 3 passengers per flight x $4 per mile x 314 flight hours x 220 miles per flight hour x 100% revenue flights =$830K for the month.

The worst case would be 1 passenger per flight x $2 per mile x 314 flight hours x 220 miles per flight hour x 66% revenue flights = $92K for the month.

As with anything, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Let's split the difference and say DayJet had $460K in revenue for the month.

According to Eclipse it costs $424.75 per hour in operating costs. That would be 314 flight hours x 424.75 = $133K in direct cost per month.

Interest expense of financing 15 aircraft would add let's say roughly another $100K per month.

If you had one and a half crews for each aircraft, that would be 45 pilots at $60K per year - works out to another $225K a month. (Likely more than 3 pilots per airframe - Ed.)

That's $458K in expenses per month vs. $460K of revenue.

Sunday, November 4, 2007

I'll take potpourri for $100, Alex

Tell us how you really feel, anonymously inarticulate internet commenter.

Mike Press October Newsletter - Eclipse will need capital to tide them over til ramp up.

Did DayJet sell (or fail to take delivery on) an airframe?

DayJet Nuggets by Sean Broderick of the AirportMagazine.Net.

DayJet jobs.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

You know you like to watch

After detailing Dayjet website traffic stats here, it's only fair to share some numbers for Discussions' own visitors. 275 unique visitors visited the blog 450 times as of October 30th for 860 total pageviews. While 20 countries sent traffic to the blog, the US and Canada contributed the lions share.

Five states contributed 20 or more visits each, with Florida leading with 75. North Palm Beach leads the Time on Site category with an average 17+ minutes for each of three visits. California had 36 visits from 23 different locations.

Notable companies with visits include; Boeing, Rockwell, AlliedSignal, Deutsche Bank, Embraer, Falcon Jet, NetJets, Gulfstream, Intel, JPMorgan Chase. Who knew Pronto Aircraft still had net billing in its' name? Greenville S.C. had a few visits - coincidentally the home of SatsAir.

Sunday, October 28, 2007

A friendly discussion

with Ed Iacobucci via AeroNews. Eclipse Aviation is an Aero-News sponsor. Ed states almost 300 companies signed up for DayJet service. Very little interest so far in whole aircraft service, which faces much more competition than per seat offerings. Ed also relates that virtually 100% of customers are coming from the auto side of travel.

The discussion lightly touches on diverting around weather, but no questions were raised regarding the lack of flight into known icing, and its possible impact on North FL ops this winter.

Seperately, POGO announced plans to interview at the Embry-Riddle career expo in November.

Monday, October 22, 2007

Tell us how you really feel, Steven Syre

Any columnist that starts with a question like "Can a turkey fly?" has my attention. And Steve Syre of the Boston Globe keeps slinging the 'tude on Pogo Jet (potential DayJet near-competitor) and its IPO from there.

Pogo Jets exists in Chicopee but doesn't have any real operations to speak of so far. It is a developing business that should be seeking venture capital investors instead of public stockholders right now.

The comapny, which looks to fly in early 2009 or so using Eclipse 500's in a per aircraft rental with "finely appointed leather interiors" has an updated website at

{Scab (ed)} /Analyst Vaughn Cordle of the consulting firm AirlineForecasts has looked over Pogo plans and doesn't like what he saw. "It's a bust of a business idea," he says.

Cordle can tick off a list of problems with the Pogo plan: bad economics, aircraft reliability questions, and lack of an existing service center. He ranks Pogo atop several companies exploring similar strategies, but only because of Crandall's experience and reputation.

But back to Steve.....

The Eclipse 500 jet seats five, and Pogo plans to use two pilots on every flight, leaving room for three passengers. Scott McCartney tested three very light jets for the Wall Street Journal last fall and described the Eclipse 500 like a sports car, very nimble but cramped.

The jet's interior has 20 percent less space than a Honda Odyssey minivan's. If you end up in the third passenger seat, "it will remind you of sitting on a floor cushion at a Japanese restaurant," McCartney wrote. Oh, and this: There's no bathroom on the plane.

Pogo Jet is an idea still too far ahead of its time for commercial success. But it can offer investors the chance to throw their money out a window from an exceptionally great height.

Saturday, October 20, 2007

Eclipse streamlines

Aero-News Network reports a reduction in employee headcount for Eclipse Aviation in ABQ. While the VP of Engineering, Ken Harness, is rumored to have left his position for another in the company, the website still lists him as part of the Eclipse engineering team.

Monday, October 15, 2007

Crosstown Traffic

Alexa details the web traffic for DayJet at approximately 22,000 users monthly.
lists a tripling of traffic leading up to the official launch, but shows that pageviews and average stay in minutes have actually decreased per visitor since March 2007. Compete shows the 'Velocity' of the website increasing for the PR push at launch.

Friday, October 12, 2007

Kissing your sister

Is this DayJet's method of improving average aircraft utilization? Flying a Lear 60 on a DayJet flight number to ABQ...No word if the ac will stop in Independence, KS on the return.
DayJet Lear info here

Some rough numbers from deep inside a comment at Eclipse Critic blog:
...All 12 DayJet planes have flown in the past 6 days. In the last 30 days, cycles on the aircraft have ranged from 12 being the fewest to 36 the most. Hours have ranged from 10.75 (.3 hours per day) to 31.75 (1 hour per day). That includes weekends when the planes aren't flying, so the actual usage really averages about .5 - 1.4 hours per aircraft per business day. I'll try to remember to do this again on 11/3, after one month of revenue flights.

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Light this Candle

Kudos to DayJet for a service inauguration including guest FL Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp.

Ed is quoted in the St. Pete Times as looking at as many as three more airports by the end of the year. Possibly including St Pete. Clearwater.

Congrats to Ed for being named among the 50 most influential people in tech.

Daily Aviatior says Boca to Lakeland is the most popular route, currently.


Sunday, September 30, 2007

Waiting for Go-DayJet

While we wait for the big launch this week, let's look a bit more into DayJet's fleet plans.

Jon Udell had a friendly IT Conversations where Ed Iacobucci casually mentions confidential information exchange with other airframe providers.

Meanwhile, Paul Bertorelli of AvWeb had a much more direct interview from NBAA Atlanta with Ed here '
The DayJet leader says both that the company has plans for various size aircraft, and that they have to be able to fly only one passenger and not lose too much money. I think I missed something there.......? And, If the 500's performance is within 5% of plan, why not be "monogamous"?

Can the company which supported Eclipse with approximately 1400 orders/options change horses after the starting gate opens? Will another manufacturer provide such lenient deposit requirements and favorable delivery positions?

“There is a bubble in the market, and there will be a shakeout,” says
Gerald Bernstein, an aviation analyst with the Velocity Group.

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Waiting for real news on the October full launch of DayJet? Check Jason Calacanis' Mahalo Dayjet results page. Mahalo is a human editor powered search engine (Less spam results). Mostly Wikipedia and PR news releases, but a good start for DayJeterati. Also, keep an eye on Google News results for DayJet, sorted by date.

Vern Raburn is quoted by AIN Online as saying Flight Into Known Icing certification is slated for "
late this year or early next."

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Sell the Sizzle

As Elmer Wheeler used to say "Sell the Sizzle, not the Steak!"

WASHINGTON, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Pogo Jet Inc. filed with regulators on Thursday to raise up to $103.5 million in an initial public offering of common stock.

Cameron Burr, POGO EVP, had previously said he would follow DayJet's successes and failures before launch. But he'll lead with his chin on Wall Street?

Can a DayJet offering be far behind? Those eight institutions will want some money back soon......

Here's an interview Ed gave to Jon Udell recounting aviation as an OS.

The less sanguine Eclipse Critic calls for a post mortem on the E-500. Nothing like a heady stew of on demand news........

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Vapor Lite Jets

Here's a quickie link to while I work on my Pogo Jet posting on a Cameron Burr interview.......


Should be called Vapor Lite Jets... most will turn out that way!

Entrepreneours wanting to build business jets start by designing a small plane thinking an entry level jet means just what it says. But it is the wrong place to start. Cessna will be the first to admit, the 8,000 lb Mustang was much tougher to engineer than the 10,700 lb CJ1 even thoug both are essentially 6-place airplanes. The fewer pounds to work with, the tougher the task.

Both the Eclipse and the Mustang are 6-place airplanes, both have similar systems and back-ups. Both have similar equipment and performance. Can Vern Raburn deliver an airplane 30% lighter than the industry leader, 5,640 lbs vs. 8,000 lbs? Does Vern possess secrets that Cessna has not learned in 60 years of building the lightest possible aircraft? Start-ups need to be realistic about weights!

Cabin volumes are nearly the same which brings up another issue of scale. Bleed air requirements for pressurization are nearly the same for both aircraft. Proportionally, it is a bigger load for the two Pratt PW610's on the Eclipse with only 1,800 lbs of thrust vs the PW615's powering the Mustang with 2,700 lbs thrust. While bigger engines produce an abundance of bleed air, small turbines are marginal at best. P&W has a solution for this problem, but it is 4-5 years down the road, too late for the Eclipse.

Sunday, September 9, 2007

Amazon, FedEx and DayJet???

Michael Trick had an interesting posting last year regarding DayJet's Operations Research...........

My friend and business partner (in sports scheduling), George Nemhauser, read my post on air taxis and wrote to remind me that Georgia Tech worked with DayJet on the optimization issues that are key to the efficient running of their operation. This led me to an USA Today article by Kevin Maney that I had missed on the subject. The article covers the optimization issues very well:

Tech industry veteran Ed Iacobucci seems an improbable guy to start a new kind of airline. It’s like Donald Trump starting a chain of Laundromats, or Tom Cruise marketing an anti-depression drug.

Pretty jarring, in other words.

Saturday, September 8, 2007

Welcome to DayJet Discussions. DayJet is a "per seat, on demand" small jet operator, focusing on the Florida market to start. Let's compare two blogs, focusing on different aspects of this controversial startup from Ed Iacobucci,
Here's Stan Blankenship, an Aeronautical Engineer
Eclipse Critic
DayJet junketeer
Josh Hallett, a Florida consultant and blogger, who received a test hop from Lakeland airport in June.
Will the availability of only three seats per aircraft be a deal breaker for potential customers? Will aircraft delivery delays and weight issues of the Eclipse sink DayJet? Well, pull up a barstool, Ridley, it's going to be a fascinating ride!